Note: In last Sunday’s Week 9 loss to the Buffalo Bills the Seahawks defense was shredded again, surrendering 415 passing yards to Bills quarterback Josh Allen while allowing 44 points; the most ever for a Pete Carroll coached Seahawks defense. If you’re like me, those of you who have been “Twelves” for a while have a hard time watching such porous defense—it’s so NOT what we’re used to seeing in earlier seasons. Based on his post-game comments, even Carroll agrees: “So out of character across the board,” the Seattle head coach said, “I don’t even recognize us.” I gotta agree with Pete. The fact is, for all the promise of a Super Bowl run this year; for all the excitement of Russell Wilson and Seattle’s high-powered offense, this team will go nowhere unless it finds some answers for its NFL-worst defense—and fast! Please read on…MA

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We are now 8 games into this craziest of all seasons and, based on stats, the Seahawks’ rushing defense isn’t bad, ranking 3^rd in the NFL in yards allowed (749) and 4^th in yards per attempt (3.7). Seems pretty good, right? Now factor this in: Seattle’s D through week 9 has allowed more yards (3,646) than all but one other NFL team (Atlanta, 3,690), and that team has played 9 games to Seattle’s 8. If you deduced from this that Seattle’s pass defense must be pretty bad, you’d be correct. In fact, it’s historically bad; at this pace one of the worst, if not the worst, in NFL history. To this point in the season the Hawks defense has allowed 2,897 passing yards, an average of 362 per game. The next closest team, the Falcons, check in with about 310 yards per game. Based on these numbers, with receivers like Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley, and a quarterback like Josh Allen, if you were the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator planning for this game, what would you do? If you are smart you’d do what Bills OC, Brian Daboll, did do: construct a game plan based on his quarterback’s strong right arm and his gifted receivers’ ability to catch the ball.

In this game, won by the Bills 44-34, Allen and co. implemented Daboll’s plan to perfection. For the game the Bills quarterback completed 31 of 38 throws for 415 yards and 3 touchdowns. Buffalo’s receivers Diggs (9 catches for 118 yds), John Brown (8 catches for 99 yds), Gabriel Davis (4 catches for 70 yds) and Beasley (3 catches for 39 yds) found openings throughout the Seattle secondary, and Allen had little trouble getting the ball to them. The Bills’ plan was obvious from the opening kickoff, which was returned 60 yards by Buffalo’s speedy return man, Andre Roberts, all the way to the Seattle 40-yard line. From there Allen led his team to an opening drive touchdown in 3 plays, all passes, with the score coming on a 25-yard pass to slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie. Following the Buffalo kickoff, the Seahawks were held to a 3 and out, punting the ball back to the Bills, who took over at their own 28. Allen then drove his team down the field again, using 11 plays, 9 of them passes, to another touchdown; this time on a short, 2-yd throw to his tight end Tyler Kroft. With the first quarter barely half gone, the Bills had the Seahawks in 14-0 hole, while Josh Allen was 10 of 11 for 119 yards and 2 TDs. Obviously, things weren’t looking good for the “Twelves.”

By this point in the game it should have been clear to the entire Hawks brain trust what the Bills were doing. Oddly, however, adjustments were slow in coming. In his post-game comments Carroll appeared surprised by Buffalo’s strategy in eschewing the run in favor of throwing the ball. “These guys didn’t even try to run the football today,” Carroll said. “We didn’t expect that to happen. We didn’t think they would totally abandon the running game. We had a real nice plan for how they were gonna run it. We have to be able to adapt better.”

No kidding, Pete. The trouble is, the Bills were merely exploiting the problem that has bedeviled the Seahawks all season—terrible pass defense. Initially the issue with the Hawks pass D seemed to be a very poor pass rush, but that element of Seattle’s defense has improved over the last two weeks, with 3 sacks against the 49ers and 7 against the Bills. To get those sacks, however, Seattle has had to employ a variety of exotic blitzes, sometimes from the linebackers and sometimes from the defensive backs; as “organic” pressure, that is pressure on the passer from the defensive line alone, has been weak. Blitzes will always leave holes in a secondary, and a good quarterback knows how to take advantage. Injuries have also taken their toll on the pass defense. The team’s best corner, Shaquille Griffen, missed this game with a concussion, and the dynamic Jamaal Adams was just returning to action against Buffalo, after missing 4 games with a groin strain. Cornerback Quinton Dunbar played in this game despite an obviously injured knee that was impairing him significantly. The loss for the season of Marquise Blair and Bruce Irvin to ACL tears has also had an impact. It is difficult for a defense to play well, with so many changes happening because of injuries.

All that notwithstanding, injuries are part of the game in the NFL. By week 9 in any season all teams have them. Seattle’s inability to adjust to opposing offenses, whether in-game or within the season, has been the team’s single biggest problem so far in this 2020 campaign. Illustrating the point, by half time of last Sunday’s game, the Bills had a 24-10 lead, and quarterback Josh Allen had completed 24 of 28 passes for 282 yards and 3 TDs: the single best half of football ever by a Buffalo quarterback, and the most first half passing yards by any quarterback in the league this season.

The Seahawks had other problems in this game to be sure. Russell Wilson was uncharacteristically loose with the football, throwing two picks and fumbling twice while being strip-sacked. That’s 4 turnovers for the game while the Bills had none, and it’s damn hard to win a game when you turn the ball over 4 times. In addition, statistically the weakest point of Buffalo’s defense is defending the run, where they are the 6^th worst D in the league. Yet, partially because they were playing catch-up the whole game, and partially because their top two running backs, Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, are still out with injuries, the Seahawks did nothing to exploit the weakness. For the entire game Seattle rushed the ball just 17 times for 57 yards. I know we’re in the “let Russ cook” era, but those numbers are ridiculous. For play-action passes to have any deceit factor at all, the idea that a team will run the ball must be a plausible threat in the collective mind of the defense. Against Buffalo in this game, the Hawks never established that.

Lest I be too negative, it wasn’t all bad for the Seahawks. DK Metcalf had another good game, catching 7 passes for over 100 yards and 1 score, while Wilson passed for 390 yards and 2 TDs, to raise his league leading total to 28. The 7 sacks on Josh Allen were a season high for Seattle, and show the team is trying to rectify its pass rush issues. New defensive line addition Carlos Dunlap, recently acquired via trade from the Bengals, performed well, with one sack and 3 tackles for loss. He should bolster our team’s “organic” pass rush. Wide receiver David Moore also had a solid performance, catching a 4^th quarter 55-yard touchdown pass from Wilson.

All that understood, as this Bills game demonstrates, the blue print for beating Seattle is now public knowledge—pass the ball against the leaky Seahawks defense. This coming week the Seahawks face the Rams in LA, and 4 days later they get the Cardinals on Thursday night at the Clink. You know those teams will be milking the film of this Bills game for all its worth. To keep our team’s Super Bowl hopes alive, it’s now up to Pete Carroll, defensive coordinator Ken Norton, and the players on that defense, to step up and change that blue print to one more conducive to championship football.

Let’s hope they can do it.

Go Hawks!